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第 40 课:Argentine Economy Faces Uncertain Future 阿根廷经济前景难料

Welcome back to World Business Report, I'm Jamie Robertson. There's more nail-biting negotiations going on for Argentina. The country's Economy Minister, Domingo Cavallo, has, is going to hold an emergency meeting with officials of the International Monetary Fund, the IMF, on Friday. 欢迎回到《世界经济报道》,我是杰米·罗伯逊。围绕阿根廷的艰难谈判正在进行当中。阿经济部长多明哥·卡瓦略将在星期五与国际货币基金组织(IMF)的官员举行紧急会议。

The country stands on the brink of bankruptcy after the IMF refused to release a $1.2 billion loan charge. In a desperate move to raise funds, the government's forced private pension funds to transfer $2.3 billion into a state bank. 在国际货币基金组织拒绝为阿根廷提供十二亿美元的贷款后,阿的经济正处于崩溃的边缘。阿根廷政府不得不采取紧急措施,强迫私营退休基金向国家银行注入二十三亿美元的资金。

In return, they're going to get treasury bills. The government is also battling a recession which has been going on for 43 months. 而政府则会以政府债券的形式把钱还给他们。同时,阿根廷政府还得对付已延续了四十三个月的经济危机。

Despite fearing for the economy and their jobs, residents of Buenos Aires are still snapping up the latest fad. Tom Gibb's got this report. 但在布宜诺斯艾利斯,尽管市民们都担心国家的经济和自己的工作,他们还是没有放过最新的流行时尚。汤姆·吉布向我们报道。

The latest game to hit the streets of Buenos Aires is called Eternal Debt. It invites players to pit their wits against the International Monetary Fund, something of which Argentina's present government appears to have singularly failed. 在布宜诺斯艾利斯的大街小巷,最流行的游戏叫“没完没了的债务”。玩这个游戏的人要用自己的智慧与国际货币基金组织斗,这也是阿根廷现任的政府一直都做得很失败的事情。

Over the last year, the IMF has repeatedly bailed Argentina out on the condition that the government balances its books, but that hasn't happened. IMF officials reportedly want Argentina to devalue the currency, the peso, which, for the last ten years has been tied one to one to the dollar. 在过去的一年里,国际货币基金组织不断地向阿根廷提供援助,据说,其前提条件是阿政府要平衡它的财政收支,但这一点并没有实现。在过去的十年里,阿根廷的货币比索一直与美元维持一对一的汇率。据报道,国际货币基金组织的官员希望阿根廷让阿根廷的货币——比索贬值,

But Argentina's government says that would bring chaos. Now, for the moment, the IMF has cut Argentina off. 但阿政府声称这样做会给阿根廷带来混乱。目前,国际货币基金组织已暂时切断了它对阿根廷的援助,

This latest blow comes when the economy is already on its knees. After four years of recession, companies like Rubial, which produces Eternal Debt, are struggling to stay afloat. 而这时,阿根廷的经济已经是不堪一击了。经过了四年的经济危机后,许多公司就像生产“没完没了的债务”游戏的卢波公司一样,在困境中挣扎。

Plans for expansion and export have had to be shelved. Exorbitant interest rates and the risk of devaluation mean taking a loan at the moment would be suicide. 原有的扩展计划及出口计划都不得不被搁置。在利率过高和货币存在贬值可能的情况下,去货款就与自杀无异了。

Ruibal Owner: It's very difficult at the moment. Our objective now is to maintain our position. If we're able to keep that position and keep paying our workers, with the conditions of today, that's considered a success. 卢波公司老板:目前我们的处境很艰难。我们的目标是维持现状。在现有的条件下,如果我们能够做到这一点,能够向我们的工人发工资,那就很了不起了。

Most companies heavily in debt have gone bust. Unemployment has been rising steadily. Argentines, on average, earn 14% less than when the recession started. 许多债务沉重的公司都已倒闭。失业率不断上升。如今阿根廷人的收入,比经济危机前平均少14%。

Lower wages mean less to spend, deepening the recession. Without the IMF money, it'll be even more important for the Argentine government to try to balance its books. 低工资就等于低消费,这就更加深了经济危机。没有国际货币基金组织的援助资金,阿根廷政府能否做到财政收支平衡就显得尤为重要。

But throughout the recession, sales in the shops have been falling, and tax revenues with them. Many shops have had to close. 在整个经济危机期间,阿根廷的商店销售额下降,政府的税收也随之下降。不少商店都被迫关门。

Santa Claus, it seems, has been frightened away from Argentina this year because of the economic recession. 现在看来,圣诞老人已被今年的经济危机吓得远离阿根廷。在往年,

This is the time when shops selling toys and games should be making most of their sales, but instead, everyone is struggling. 这本来是那些卖玩具和游戏的商店生意最好的时候,但今年,大家的日子都不好过。