金融世界第 11 讲: 凯恩斯的理论

在这一讲中我们要谈的话题是： The government as manager, 政府对经济的管理，以及经济学家对凯恩斯经济学理论的不同看法。

英国著名经济学家凯恩斯 John Maynard Keynes 在1936年出版了他划时代的巨著 The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money －“就业，利息和货币通论”，提出“有效需求不足”的理论思想，被经济学界看作是一场理论革命。他的理论是宏观经济学的经典，至今仍然影响着各国经济政策的制定和当代经济理论的发展。

下面我们要听一下美国哈佛大学经济学教授格雷格曼奇对凯恩斯的理论做的介绍。在收听他的谈话之前，我们先来熟悉一下他在谈话中使用的几个词汇：

1 The General Theory 通论，对凯恩斯著作“就业，利息和货币通论”的简称
2 recession 衰退
3 Great Depression 大萧条，指1929年到1930年代初期世界性严重经济衰退
4 inadequate demand for goods and services 对商品和服务的需求不足

美国哈佛大学曼奇教授对凯恩斯理论做了这样的简单介绍：

Keynes's work essentially changed the way economists view the functioning of the economy. It really is traced to Keynes' great book The General Theory, which in 1936 provided a new way for us to think about booms and recessions. 凯恩斯的研究基本上改变了经济学家有关经济运转的观念。这可以一直追溯到凯恩斯的伟大著作 “通论”。这本书在1936年为我们研究繁荣与衰退提供了新的方法。

It's important to keep in mind when he was writing, he was writing essentially in the midst of a Great Depression, a situation where roughly a quarter of the labour force was unemployed in the United States and other developed countries. 重要的是要记住他写作这本书的年代。他基本上是在大萧条期间进行的写作，而大萧条期间美国和其他发达国家都有大约四分之一的劳动力失业。

And this was an event that economists had a lot of trouble coming to grips with, trying to understand, trying to come up with policy recommedations to deal with. 许多经济学家绞尽脑汁来研究大萧条，试图弄清楚它的来龙去脉，试图找到对付大萧条的方法。

I think the central idea in Keyes' general theory is that recessions, or depressions, result from inadequate demand for goods and services. Essentially people in governments and firms aren't spending enough and that's why so many people are unemployed. 我认为凯恩斯通论的中心思想是：衰退或萧条是由对商品和服务的需求不足造成的。基本上是说，政府和公司花费得不够，因此有许多人失业。

And what Keyens' theory was to do was basically to show how that could work and to show what governments could do to try to prop up demand for goods and services and get economies out of recessions and depressions. 凯恩斯的理论基本上是要证明如何这才能行得通以及政府可以采取什么行动来促进对商品和服务的需求，使经济摆脱衰退和萧条。

尽管凯恩斯理论对各国政府的货币政策和财政收支政策都曾产生过重大的影响，但曼奇教授指出，受到最直接影响的是财政收支政策。他说：

It's probably most obvious in fiscal policy, because that's where Keynes argues, essentially, that the problem of the Great Depression could be solved most easily with fiscal policy. So there's a lot of examples in the US's and other countries' histories that were essentially applications of Keynes' ideas. 财政收支政策受到的影响大概最为明显，因为凯恩斯基本上认为可以通过（调整）财政收支政策来最容易地解决大萧条的问题。因此在美国和其他国家的历史上就有了许多实际上实施凯恩斯理论的例证。

For example when John Kennedy came to the White House one of the first things he wanted to do was to cut taxes in order to stimulate the economy. And the arguments that he gave were essentially textbook Keynesian arguments. 比如约翰肯尼迪入主白宫，首先作的就是减税以刺激经济发展。他提出的理由从本质上来说就是规范的凯恩斯理论。

到了二次世界大战结束时，世界上许多国家的政府都接受了凯恩斯的主张。澳大利亚、英国、美国等国政府都纷纷承担起追求完全就业和经济稳定的责任。

然而，即便是在凯恩斯理论的黄金时代，它也一直受到质疑。1976年获诺贝尔奖的美国著名经济学家弗里德曼教授就是对凯恩斯理论持批评意见的学者之一。在下一讲中我们要为您介绍弗里德曼教授的经济理论观点。