特别广播英语第 170 课：Aging in European Countries 欧洲国家的老龄化-2

These facts and circumstances were well to the fore earlier this year at a world gathering about aging as a challenge to science and to policy, held at Vichy in France. 这些事实和情况早些时候在法国维希举行的一个世界大会上被视为科学家和政策的挑战而置于显著的地位。

There is often resistance to the idea that it is because the birthrate fell earlier in Western and Northwestern Europe than elsewhere, rather than because of any change in the death rate, that we have grown so old. 我们人口的老龄化，是因为在西欧和西北欧出生率比其他地方下降得早，百不是因为死亡率发生了一些变化。对这一观点经常有人不以为然，

But this is what elementary demography makes clear. 但这是通过基本的人口统计学澄清的事实。

Long life is altering our society, of course, but in experiential terms. 当然，长寿正改变着我们的社会，但这只是经验论。

We have among us a very much greater experience of continued living than any society that has ever preceded us anywhere, and this will continue. 我们之中有一种比先于我们的任何社会多得多的继续生存的经历，这种经历将继续下去。

But too much of that lengthened experience, even in the wealthy West, will be experience of poverty and neglect, unless we do something about it . 除非我们能在这方面采取措施，即使在富裕的西方，太多的这种经历将被，视为贫穷和荒废的过去。

If you are now in your thirties, you ought to be aware that you can expect to live nearly one third of the rest of your life after the age of 60. 你现年三十几岁，你应当知道，你可以指望在活到60岁以后再活上差不多15年。

The older you are now, of course, the greater this proportion will be, and greater still if you are a woman. 现在你年纪越大，这个比例就越高。如果你是女性，这个比例还会更大。

Expectation of life is a slippery figure, very easy to get wrong at the highest ages. 预期寿命不是一个固定数字，在最高年龄上很容易弄错。

At Vichy the demographers were telling each other that their estimates of how many old there would be and how long they will live in countries like England and Wales are due for revision upwards. 在维希，人口学家互相转告，在像英格兰和威尔士这些国家，他们对将有多少老人和他们能活多久的估计应向上调整。